Commentary/On the move: migration can contribute to sustainable economic development

The world is now witnessing unprecedented numbers of people forced from their homes. Over 68.5 million people had been displaced by 2018, with over 22 million crossing international borders and becoming classified as refugees. And displaced people represent but a small fraction of global migration – in 2017 nearly 260 million individuals lived outside their country of birth.

People have migrated since the beginning of human history, usually motivated by pursuit of a better life.¹ 1. Held, D. (2016). Climate change, migration and the cosmopolitan dilemma. Global Policy, 7(2), 237-246. See all references And while today human movement is at record levels, migration should not be viewed solely as a challenge. It is also an opportunity that, if handled well, will help meet many of the goals of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted by world leaders in 2015.

Yet, of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets – covering a range of issues including poverty reduction, improvements in health, and climate action – only one, target 10.7, addresses migration directly: “Facilitate orderly, safe, and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies”.

Since human movement can both challenge and promote sustainable development, migration should be acknowledged and integrated within efforts to achieve many of the SDGs.

Mentao refugee camp in Burkina Faso. Photo: Pablo Tosco/Oxfam Intermón/Flickr.

People migrate for many reasons, for example, in response to climate change such as sea-level rise and extreme weather; in search of employment; or to escape from persecution. Such climate, economic, and political pressures are unlikely to be reduced anytime soon, and good governance is essential to manage the resulting migration in ways that support sustainable development. These critical connections are explored below through three aspects of contemporary movement: environmental migration, urbanisation, and remittances.

Dealing with climate migration

Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, floods, and storms have displaced an average of 26.4 million people annually since 2008. The natural disasters with the highest degree of impact are almost entirely weather related: earthquakes account for only 10% of the displacement, with flooding and storm damage causing the rest. Migration due to more gradual processes such as long-term droughts and heat waves is projected to increase in the coming years. And sea-level rise is another slow-burning threat that will force people to relocate. By 2100, it is predicted that 1 billion people will live along the coastal strip less than 10 metres above sea level, making them highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and forced relocation.² 2. Barbier, E. B. (2015). Climate change impacts on rural poverty in low-elevation coastal zones. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 165, A1-A13. See all references

Projecting future climate-related movement is challenging, since migration results from complex interactions between economic, political, and environmental factors, as well as other issues. A recent World Bank report suggests that by 2050 nearly 143 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America could be forced to move within their countries in response to slow-onset impacts of climate change. Millions of others may cross international boundaries.

The media often covers climate-related migration as a crisis. But with good governance, such movement can actually promote progress towards UN goals. For example, as people move in pursuit of decent work (SDG 8), their remittances – earnings sent back to origin households – can improve climate resilience (SDG 13) in their home communities through investments towards more sustainable agriculture (SDG 2). For example, in north-east India, migrant remittances have enabled the purchase of tractors, allowing some households to increase agricultural productivity as well as to accelerate planting and harvesting, thereby lessening the impact of flood seasons on their harvest.

But climate-related migration can undermine other sustainable development goals, for example by overwhelming areas receiving large influxes of migrants, which may contribute to conflict and political instability, challenging SDG 16 – peace, justice, and strong institutions.

Locals in Tebikenikora, a village in the Pacific island nation of Kiribati. When tide is high the sea water very easily overflows the surrounding land making it impossible for people to use this land. Photo: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe/Flickr.

Researchers continue to debate the complex link between climate, migration, and conflict,^3-4 3. Selby, J., Dahi, O. S., Fröhlich, C., & Hulme, M. (2017). Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited. Political Geography, 60, 232-244. 4. Moser, S.C. and J.A.F. Hart (2015) 'The long arm of climate change: societal teleconnections and the future of climate change impacts studies.' Climatic Change 129 (1-2): 13-26. See all references but environmental factors such as drought have played at least a partial role in migration from rural Syria,⁵ 5. Femia, F., Werrell, C. (2017). An unstable, stable nation? Climate, water, migration and security in Syria from 2006–2011. Climate Hazard Crises in Asian Societies and Environments, 1. See all references Mexico,⁶ 6. Leyk, S., Runfola, D., Nawrotzki, R. J., Hunter, L. M., Riosmena, F. (2017). Internal and International Mobility as Adaptation to Climatic Variability in Contemporary Mexico: Evidence from the Integration of Census and Satellite Data. Population, space and place, 23(6). See all references and Tanzania.⁷ 7. Ocello, C., Petrucci, A., Testa, M. R., Vignoli, D. (2015). Environmental aspects of internal migration in Tanzania. Population and Environment, 37(1), 99-108. See all references In some cases, these population movements have been linked to conflict, in other cases not.⁸ 8. Fröhlich, C. J. (2016). Climate migrants as protestors? Dispelling misconceptions about global environmental change in pre-revolutionary Syria. Contemporary levant, 1(1), 38-50. See all references Even without a universal link between climate migration and conflict, a dialogue on security issues has emerged around this connection⁹ 9. Weinthal, E., Zawahri, N., Sowers, J. (2015). Securitizing water, climate, and migration in Israel, Jordan, and Syria. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 15(3), 293-307. See all references and, in some regions, continues to shape negative perceptions of immigrants.¹⁰ 10. Kita, S. M. J., & Raleigh, C. H. (2018). Environmental migration and international political security. In Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration (Vol. 356, No. 369, pp. 356-369). Routledge in association with GSE Research. See all references

Climate migration will continue. To leave their homes may be the only option facing residents of low-lying island states, such as Kiribati in the Pacific Ocean.¹¹ 11. Yamamoto, L., Esteban, M. (2017). Migration as an adaptation strategy for Atoll Island States. International Migration, 55(2), 144-158. See all references But the term “climate refugee” is not yet recognised under international law, so these migrants receive no international support or protection. However, this is beginning to change. At the UN Climate Change Conference 2010 in Cancún, Mexico, nations recognised climate change-induced movement and encouraged national, regional, and international “understanding, coordination and cooperation” in responding to climate-related displacement and migration.

In response to the climate vulnerability of low-lying Pacific states, New Zealand became the first country to propose a special refugee visa for island residents fleeing rising sea levels. We argue there is a human rights-based moral argument for relatively wealthy nations with higher per capita emissions to support those who contribute least to global warming but will be disproportionately affected by climate change. In addition, New Zealand’s proposed action pre-empts a humanitarian crisis that could result in high levels of rapid displacement and less opportunity for planning, likely resulting in greater costs. The climate visa programme would facilitate pre-emptive and voluntary “migration with dignity”, which offers better planning opportunities in receiving communities.¹² 12. Farquhar, H. (2015). Migration with Dignity: Towards a New Zealand Response to Climate Change Displacement in the Pacific. Victoria U. Wellington L. Rev., 46, 29. See all references

Expanding urbanisation

More than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas, a focus for SDG 11. At the same time, urban planners face huge sustainability challenges. The planet’s current urban population is 4.2 billion and continues to grow. Projections to 2050 show that nearly 90% of urban growth is expected to take place in Asia and Africa. As former UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon once said: “Our struggle for global sustainability will be lost or won in cities.”

By 2050, urban infrastructure across the globe must accommodate 2.5 billion new city dwellers. Rapid urbanisation has brought growth in informal settlements lacking infrastructure, which makes it hard to achieve many of the SDGs such as improved health (SDG 3), quality education (SDG 4), and clean water and sanitation (SDG 6). Planning shortfalls also often increase the risks facing urban areas as natural disasters are projected to become more frequent and intense in many world regions.

Consider the slums of Nairobi. The city has experienced dramatic growth and today has nearly 4.5 million residents – 495,000 more than in 2015. It is estimated that between 60–70% of Nairobi residents live in informal settlements that have poor access to clean water, sanitation, health services, schools, and social services. Slum residents have worse health than any other group of Kenyans, including rural residents. Although many people move to Nairobi in search of a better life, more households are falling into than moving out of poverty (SDG 1).¹³ 13. Mberu, B. U., Ciera, J. M., Elungata, P., Ezeh, A. C. (2016). Fertility and Household Economic Outcomes among Poor Urban Households in Nairobi informal Settlements, Kenya. Etude de la Population Africaine, 30(3). See all references

Policies targeting “sustainable urbanisation” have gained attention. Curitiba in Brazil illustrates the positive benefits of planning for urban growth. The city’s leaders adopted a Master Plan in 1968, which stimulated innovation in urban planning. An example is the establishment of the Curitiba Industrial City, which underpins about 50,000 direct and 150,000 indirect jobs. The city is designated for industrial development but with strict environmental regulations. Thoughtful transportation planning has resulted in far lower levels of congestion, which can improve income generation by freeing up time. In fact, Curitiba’s congestion-related income loss is seven times lower per capita than that of Rio de Janeiro.

Part of sustainable urbanisation is viewing migrants not solely as an economic burden, but also as an asset to the economy, as countries need foreign workers to meet labour shortages. An ambitious programme in Chongqing in China trains rural migrants in skilled labour. The programme is part of the nation’s New Urbanisation Plan – the largest planned migration in history – that fosters rural-urban migration by offering compensation to rural residents for relocation. In addition to job training, rural-urban migrants can receive one-off payments for rural assets and school transfers, and can be prioritised for public housing.¹⁴ 14. Zhou, J. (2018). The New Urbanisation Plan and permanent urban settlement of migrants in Chongqing, China. Population, Space and Place, e2144. See all references

Rotterdam in the Netherlands is also known as an innovator in integration policies. An ambitious “National Program Rotterdam South” (NPRZ) targets deprived, ethnically diverse neighbourhoods with initiatives to improve educational levels and housing quality, while also reducing unemployment. The initiative links these three pillars and underlines the need for multi-sectoral efforts in urban planning and in support of migrant communities.

Tapping into the potential of urbanisation can speed up progress towards sustainable development indicators such as improved social, economic, and environmental well-being of urban migrants and non-migrants alike.

The importance of migrant remittances

In 2017, low- and middle-income countries received over US$466 billion in remittances, three times the amount of official aid flows. And the money migrants send to family and friends contributes to several SDGs: poverty reduction, food security, health services, education, and economic growth. A global study involving 71 countries showed that a 10% increase in remittances produces a 3.5% decline in the share of people living on less than US$1 per day.¹⁵ 15. Adams, R. H., Page, J. (2005). Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries? World Development 33(10):1645-1669. See all references Such poverty reduction (SDG 1) is linked to food security (SDG 2). In the Sudanian zone of Mali – where nearly two-thirds of households experience food shortage – remittances reduce short-term hunger, especially during droughts.¹⁶ 16. Generoso, R. (2015). How do rainfall variability, food security and remittances interact? The case of rural Mali. Ecological Economics, 114, 188-198. See all references

Remittances are also used for educational expenses such as tuition, books, and school uniforms¹⁷ 17. Gyimah-Brempong, K., Asiedu, E. (2015). Remittances and investment in education: Evidence from Ghana. The journal of international trade & economic development, 24(2), 173-200. See all references ; this cash influx can enable girls to stay in education longer, reduce child labour,¹⁸ 18. Bouoiyour, J., Miftah, A. (2016). The impact of remittances on children's human capital accumulation: Evidence from Morocco. Journal of International Development, 28(2), 266-280. See all references and give people a better chance of finding a good job.

Remittances can also improve health (SDG 3) and education (SDG 4). Surveys by the World Bank in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda show that 10–32% of the international remittances are used for education and healthcare. Mexican migrants report that an important motivation for sending money back home is to improve their family’s access to health services,¹⁹ 19. Held, M. L. (2017). A study of remittances to Mexico and Central America: Characteristics and perspectives of immigrants. International Journal of Social Welfare, 26(1), 75-85. See all references with approximately 6 of every 100 pesos spent on health.²⁰ 20. Amuedo-Dorantes, C., Pozo, S. (2011). New evidence on the role of remittances on healthcare expenditures by Mexican households. Review of Economics of the Household, 9(1), 69-98. See all references Increased use of health services is also associated with remittances in Vietnam.²¹ 21. Nguyen, C. V., Nguyen, H. Q. (2015). Do internal and international remittances matter to health, education and labor of children and adolescents? The case of Vietnam. Children and Youth Services Review, 58, 28-34. See all references

Remittances can be a lifeline for poor people, but many transfers are subject to high fees. Photo: WFP/Giulio d’Adamo/Flickr.

Since 2000, remittances have tripled, with India, China, and the Philippines receiving the most – US$165.8 billion combined. Remittances are proportionally even more important in smaller economies, such as Tonga, Samoa, Kyrgyzstan, and Nepal, where they can be the largest sources of foreign exchange, often exceeding 10% of the country’s GDP. In 2017, remittances to Kyrgyzstan contributed 35% of the country’s GDP.

Reducing the costs of sending remittances is a target within SDG 10, aiming to reduce inequality within and among countries. Fees of up to 29% are still being charged in some countries, while the average cost is 7.1% – more than twice the 3% target set in SDG 10. As explained by Maria Quattri, co-author of a recent report by the Overseas Development Institute on Africa’s remittance sector, “Fundamentally, the problem comes down to three related issues: lack of competition, insufficient transparency and restrictive business practices.” Two companies – Western Union and MoneyGram – have a stronghold on the global remittance industry.

While remittances can improve well-being of families back home, migration can also result in brain drains, as skilled workers seek employment elsewhere. A 2015 study of medical students in Uganda found that nearly half wanted to leave the country after graduation.²² 22. Kizito, S., Mukunya, D., Nakitende, J., Nambasa, S., Nampogo, A., Kalyesubula, R., ... Sewankambo, N. (2015). Career intentions of final year medical students in Uganda after graduating: the burden of brain drain. BMC medical education, 15(1), 122. See all references The loss of such highly skilled workers has consequences for development. Proactive policy, such as investments in facilities and salaries, is necessary to stem brain drain and to keep skilled people at home and employed.

Humanising migration governance for SDGs

Much of the global migration debate tends to emphasise the downsides. But instead of seeing migration only as a threat, the global community should consider migration as an inevitable opportunity. After all, the number-one driver of migration is the search for a better life, and migration has always been a strategy for adapting to change. These outcomes now need to be more systemically linked with an emphasis on sustainability, not least because we can expect rapid regional-scale environmental change that will challenge sustainability in both urban and rural areas.

Consideration of the links between migration and environmental change, urbanisation, and remittances leads to five recommendations:

1. We need to turn the argument about migration around and consider it a legitimate adaptation by individuals and households. Considering migration as an opportunity can shape proactive policies in anticipation of movement to urban areas. Such a perspective can also inform programmes to improve migrants’ ability to contribute to local economies.

2. Effective migration governance is needed at the international and national scale and must cross sectors such as employment, housing, and education, especially in light of climate migration. National governments must improve migrant integration to assure protection of migrants’ human rights and well-being. New Zealand’s proposed climate visa programme represents an important step.

3. Urbanisation is an ongoing process with no end in sight. Integrated, innovative, and proactive urban planning is needed that optimises land use, and minimises transport needs, service delivery costs, and disaster risk while improving the social and economic opportunities for residents, including immigrants.

4. Global markets are dominated by a few money transfer operators. The positive impacts of remittances must be maximised by increased competition, reduced transaction costs, and productive investments in communities that receive such cash transfers.

5. To develop effective policies, policymakers, migration experts, development, and global sustainability researchers must collaborate to bring a variety of perspectives to the conversation.

Migration is of tremendous relevance to development priorities. People will continue to move and efforts towards sustainable development would do well to recognise and integrate the challenges and opportunities presented by migration. A more thoughtful, innovative, and realistic approach to migration governance will generate surprising gains in support of sustainable development and achieving the sustainable development goals.